On a great day last week, one little bit of good news, the icing on the cake, was the New York Times Election Needle, a visual display that showed not only the most likely outcome, but the confidence level in the outcome.
Imagine a medical staffer being able to discuss a similar graphic showing anticipated outcomes for no treatment, for particular treatments, etc., and the confidence level shown being of an appropriate measure of certainty.
The point is that this display of data is the beginning of the discussion, not the end. Right now the discussion is largely non-statistical, often adding to the fear. Remember too, that more and more people are acquiring the confidence to talk about numbers in this way, if on by reading the ever more popular fivethirtyeight.com..
To do this would require aggregation of outcome and treatment data — insurance companies already get most of this, its just a political problem of organizing it, and he obvious place to start is Medicare.
p.s. On twitter, one reader became so ense watching the changes update, that they tweeted that on their gravestone, it should read: “He’s here because of the New York Times election needle.”